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LearnLesson 8 of 8

How to read a tree

"In order to… we must…" and "If… then…", plus the eight ways an arrow can be wrong.

Two kinds of arrowLeft: a necessity arrow read bottom-up, in order to have the top box we must have the bottom box. Right: a sufficiency arrow read top-down through an AND ellipse, if both bottom boxes then the top box.Necessity35 held calls a monthevery booking is confirmed“in order to… we must…”Sufficiencyeach held call costs $2,200ANDspend is fixedper monthonly 9 callsare held“if… and… then…”

The trees in this tool are made of boxes and arrows. Each box is one complete sentence, present tense. Each arrow is a claim you can read aloud. There are two kinds of arrow, and you read them differently.

Necessity. Used in the Goal Tree. Read it bottom-up: "In order to have the box above, we must have the box below." Example: in order to hold thirty-five calls a month, every booking must be confirmed. If the sentence is not obviously true, the arrow is wrong.

Sufficiency. Used in the Current Reality Tree and the Future Reality Tree. Read it top-down: "If the box below, then the box above." Often two boxes feed one arrow through an AND. "If spend is fixed per month, and only nine calls are held, then each held call costs $2,200."

An arrow can be wrong in eight ways. In plain words:

  1. Clarity. Do I even understand what this says?
  2. Existence. Is this box actually true?
  3. Causality. Does A really cause B?
  4. Insufficiency. Is A enough on its own, or is something else also needed?
  5. Additional cause. Could something else also cause B?
  6. Reversal. Is it really B that causes A?
  7. Predicted effect. If A caused B, we would also expect to see C. Do we?
  8. Tautology. Is B the only proof that A exists?

The tool checks 1, 3, 4 and 7 on every arrow before showing it to you. When something looks off, you can challenge the arrow with any of the eight, in these words. A tree you can read aloud and defend is a tree you can act on.

Check yourself

Two questions. Pick one answer each; you will see why straight away.

  1. 1.How do you read a necessity arrow?

     

  2. 2."If we run more ads, then revenue rises." What is the most likely reservation?